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2017 December 24 (Adam)

I got interested in checking in on the leaders among matches played in calendar year 2017, since the last tournaments of the year are over. Here’s a table of stats.

There are a variety of ways to try to measure performance over the span of a year. The most straightforward is win percentage, and in that metric Huey Jensen (87-31, 73.73%) laps the field. Among people who played 100 matches, he’s almost 5 percentage points above second place, Fabien Li (93-42, 68.89%). Even if we admit anyone who’s played 75 matches, the second best becomes Jeremy Sager (56-23, 70.89%).

Average Elo may do a better job of capturing who has had sustained excellence throughout the year. To keep your Elo rating over 2000 you can’t have any stretch of mediocrity. Not only do you need to be winning a large percentage of your matches, but you need to consistently post that percentage week to week or you’ll see fluctutaions in your rating. As it’s easier to lose points than gain them when you’re at 2000+, those fluctuations will ultimately bring down your average. There are 71 people who had an average rating of 2000 this year (while playing 100 matches), and the table in the link above shows all of their seasons. On this measure, two people who played 100 matches and maintained a 2200(!) average rating throughout the year, pacing the field: Brad Nelson (2221) and Huey (2218). Both touched 2400 at some point during the year.

Another option is to look at minimum Elo. With average, if you somehow were to oscillate evenly between 2000 and 2200, you’d wind up with an average of 2100. But the highest rating you actually maintained was 2000. This is a cruel stat, since it will punish people like Huey who had a crazy high in the middle of the year but happened to begin last January with a less ridiculous rating (he started his first event, PTAER, at 1980). The winner here is Owen Turtenwald, who never went below 2060 at any time all year. His average rank after weekends with tournaments is 15th, and he only was outside the top 30 for one weekend. There’s a reason we call 11-4 at a GP the ORAT special: the man is wildly consistent. In fact, Owen has the longest active streak of matches with a 2000+ rating: 469, dating back to the 2015 World Championship. Brad Nelson is the only other one who can say that his streak goes back to 2015. His streak of 428 matches began at GP Atlanta 2015.

As always, if you have suggestions for statistics, I’m happy to crunch numbers!