Welcome to Elo 2.0! See the most recent blog post to learn more.

This table shows the percentage of players with a given record that have gone on to make the top 8. Data is drawn from all "large" fifteen-round GPs from August 2003 to March 2020. Here "large" means 1537-2048 players. There are 74 such events. Players with byes aren't included until they appear, so a player with two byes who wins their first match in round 3 will count for the "3-0" box but not the "1-0" or "2-0". As such the "1-0" box tallies only people who played in and won round 1. Mouseover or tap the table to show the data underlying that cell.

Here are links to the corresponding tables for small, medium, large, and massive GPs.

at conclusion of round...
x-0 x-0-1 x-1 x-1-1 x-2 x-1-2 x-2-1 x-3
15 100 3/3 100 8/8 100 25/25 100 126/126 83 374/452 93 13/14 15 26/177 0 0/1734
14 100 15/15 100 7/7 97 134/138 68 40/59 43 373/877 17 2/12 3.9 10/256 0 0/2842
13 100 30/30 63 5/8 73 199/273 34 30/88 20 310/1515 7.4 2/27 1.6 6/384 0 0/4211
12 95 53/56 33 5/15 49 249/512 19 29/150 9.5 240/2538 2.4 1/41 0.87 5/573 0 0/5975
11 82 82/100 30 10/33 28 269/951 8.1 21/260 4.7 197/4175 1.5 1/68 0.26 2/768 0 0/7928
10 60 120/200 15 9/61 17 287/1726 4.8 22/458 2.1 144/6739 1.3 1/77 0 0/938 0 0/9347
9 40 162/410 9.0 10/111 9.2 286/3099 1.9 14/750 1.0 110/10637 1.1 1/90 0 0/1388 0 0/14133
8 23 195/831 5.9 11/186 5.2 290/5537 0.76 8/1057 0.49 78/16057 0.53 1/190 0 0/1995 0 0/20159
7 15 253/1692 3.8 12/318 2.7 258/9563 0.25 4/1586 0.24 55/22922 0.33 1/301 0 0/2586 0 0/24014
6 8.8 302/3426 2.2 12/554 1.5 234/15977 0.04 1/2307 0.11 34/30553 0 0/405 0 0/3028 0 0/26014
5 5.3 367/6937 1.2 12/983 0.75 192/25541 0 0/3071 0.04 13/36897 0 0/433 0 0/3175 0 0/23930
4 3.1 440/14095 0.44 7/1601 0.34 129/37917 0 0/3568 0.02 8/38342 0 0/401 0 0/2668 0 0/17220
3 1.4 362/26007 0.21 5/2374 0.14 66/48835 0 0/3452 <0.01 1/31224 0 0/242 0 0/1435 0 0/8317
2 0.40 114/28670 0.07 2/2780 0.03 14/47229 0 0/2368 0 0/18499
1 0.14 58/40141 0.04 1/2672 <0.01 2/40142