Welcome to Elo 2.0! See the most recent blog post to learn more.

This table shows the percentage of players with a given record that have gone on to make the top 8. Data is drawn from all "small" fifteen-round GPs from August 2003 to March 2020. Here "small" means 0-1024 players. There are 153 such events. Players with byes aren't included until they appear, so a player with two byes who wins their first match in round 3 will count for the "3-0" box but not the "1-0" or "2-0". As such the "1-0" box tallies only people who played in and won round 1. Mouseover or tap the table to show the data underlying that cell.

Here are links to the corresponding tables for small, medium, large, and massive GPs.

at conclusion of round...
x-0 x-0-1 x-1 x-1-1 x-2 x-1-2 x-2-1 x-3
15 100 3/3 100 5/5 100 5/5 100 53/53 100 104/104 100 219/219 93 662/710 11 137/1269
14 100 10/10 100 8/8 100 53/53 99.6 231/232 84 600/715 57 21/37 45 159/354 5.1 126/2457
13 100 27/27 100 12/12 99.6 260/261 77 95/123 46 632/1384 33 15/45 20 102/503 2.0 71/3614
12 100 54/54 90 19/21 73 354/484 52 108/207 24 570/2341 7.9 6/76 8.4 63/747 0.80 40/5012
11 88 92/104 69 22/32 51 460/909 30 110/368 12 467/3835 5.2 6/115 3.9 41/1050 0.27 17/6321
10 77 159/207 37 23/62 31 522/1667 17 107/618 6.0 369/6159 3.7 6/161 1.8 24/1332 0.11 7/6650
9 56 233/417 25 32/126 19 576/3001 8.8 91/1039 2.7 266/9848 0.72 2/279 0.75 16/2146 0.02 2/12561
8 37 314/850 16 37/236 11 617/5440 4.2 58/1374 1.2 186/15184 0 0/339 0.20 5/2536 0 0/17992
7 25 441/1736 11 45/423 6.1 574/9377 1.9 40/2052 0.56 120/21494 0 0/454 0 0/3172 0 0/21331
6 16 575/3522 5.8 46/788 3.2 501/15585 0.82 24/2920 0.27 76/28325 0 0/550 0 0/3600 0 0/22991
5 10.0 717/7180 2.8 37/1341 1.7 416/24711 0.30 11/3713 0.13 43/33670 0 0/601 0 0/3672 0 0/21213
4 5.9 871/14740 1.3 26/2037 0.87 311/35943 0.10 4/4132 0.03 12/34592 0 0/510 0 0/2923 0 0/15856
3 2.7 610/22321 0.21 6/2796 0.34 149/43836 0 0/3808 <0.01 2/29202 0 0/301 0 0/1660 0 0/7633
2 1.0 275/27285 0.09 3/3168 0.09 40/44534 0 0/2655 <0.01 1/17152
1 0.33 122/37281 0.03 1/3104 0.05 18/37269